Last year was an amazing time to be invested in stocks. The S&P 500 Index recorded 62 new closing highs in a year that only had one down month (April). 2018 has felt a little like Groundhog Day, well not THE Groundhog Day (today), but more like the 1993 Bill Murray movie. In the film, Murray's character awoke each morning to relive the same day. So far, the S&P 500 has recreated setting a new record high 15 times before peaking last Friday.
With market records seemingly being set every day, I’m increasingly asked if the winning streak means negative returns for stocks are on the horizon? Maybe so, but if you had gone to cash every time the market hit a new high last year, you would have left a lot of meat on the bone.
When addressing this question, it can be helpful to keep the following in mind: