Accountable Update Blog

Jeff Weeks

Q1 2025 Quarterly Market Review: An Analysis of Market Dynamics

For Q1 2025, US stocks experienced a notable decline, with the Russell 3000 Index down 4.72%. This contrasted sharply with international developed markets, which rose by 6.20%, and emerging markets, which gained 2.93%. Global real estate exhibited moderate growth, up 1.37%. Bonds were similarly mixed, as US bonds increased 2.78%, while global bonds outside the US showed slight weakness, declining by 0.17%.

Trade policy gained prominence as the Trump administration's proposed tariffs sparked global market uncertainty. Interestingly, primary tariff-targeted markets such as Canada, Mexico, and China posted positive stock market returns, echoing patterns from Trump's previous term where contentious trade discussions did not consistently depress target-country stock markets.

Navigating Market Volatility: The Importance of a Disciplined Investment Approach

After a torrid start to 2025, the US stock market has given back most gains in February. Recent volatility has led some to question if the bull market that began in October of 2022 is coming to an end. I long ago gave up trying to outsmart the market, but I have learned over the years that it's during uncertain times that adhering to a disciplined investment approach becomes essential.

Why All Errors Aren't Bad in Investing

Many years ago, I played high school baseball. I was a light-hitting infielder with a weak arm, but I was decent at scooping up ground balls. Our coach, a former college player, had a magical touch with a fungo bat; he could make a baseball dance—hard grounders, towering pop flies, with spins that would exaggerate the ball’s movement. On one windy, cloudless spring day, he decided to test us with his aerial arsenal. The baseballs seemed to defy physics, often falling harmlessly to the ground. Each miss was met with a loud "Eeeeeeeeeee" (short for error), and you'd quickly find yourself benched. We all quickly came to appreciate that our coaches would not tolerate excess errors.

A few years later, when I first started in the investing business, my job was to take stock, bond, and options trades from clients over the telephone. This was the early 1990s, before most investors could buy or sell stocks from their personal computers or mobile devices. I was literally a middleman between the customer and the back office trading desks that actually transmitted the orders to the appropriate exchange or market. One particular month, during a time that we were extremely busy, I was working double shifts for overtime pay and made a few mistakes. Those trade errors wound up costing the company money, and subsequently I received coaching from my manager about how damaging errors are to the customer’s trust and the company’s bottom line. That only reinforced my belief that errors are just as bad, if not worse, in investing than they are in baseball.

But what if I told you that in investing, some errors are not just acceptable but desirable? Here, I'm talking about "tracking error," a term that, if properly understood, can make you a better investor.